Effects of Weight Loss, Weight Cycling, and Weight Loss Maintenance on Diabetes Incidence and Change in Cardiometabolic Traits in the Diabetes Prevention Program

OBJECTIVE This study examined specific measures of weight loss in relation to incident diabetes and improvement in cardiometabolic risk factors. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS This prospective, observational study analyzed nine weight measures, characterizing baseline weight, short- versus long-term weight loss, short- versus long-term weight regain, and weight cycling, within the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) lifestyle intervention arm (n = 1,000) for predictors of incident diabetes and improvement in cardiometabolic risk factors over 2 years. RESULTS Although weight loss in the first 6 months was protective of diabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 0.94 per kg, 95% CI 0.90, 0.98; P < 0.01) and cardiometabolic risk factors (P < 0.01), weight loss from 0 to 2 years was the strongest predictor of reduced diabetes incidence (HR 0.90 per kg, 95% CI 0.87, 0.93; P < 0.01) and cardiometabolic risk factor improvement (e.g., fasting glucose: β = -0.57 mg/dL per kg, 95% CI -0.66, -0.48; P < 0.01). Weight cycling (defined as number of 5-lb [2.25-kg] weight cycles) ranged 0-6 times per participant and was positively associated with incident diabetes (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.12, 1.58; P < 0.01), fasting glucose (β = 0.91 mg/dL per cycle; P = 0.02), HOMA-IR (β = 0.25 units per cycle; P = 0.04), and systolic blood pressure (β = 0.94 mmHg per cycle; P = 0.01). After adjustment for baseline weight, the effect of weight cycling remained statistically significant for diabetes risk (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.02, 1.47; P = 0.03) but not for cardiometabolic traits. CONCLUSIONS Two-year weight loss was the strongest predictor of reduced diabetes risk and improvements in cardiometabolic traits.